WP 3: End-to-end ecosystem modelling of ecological tipping points in the HUS
PI: Ivy Frenger and Andreas Oschlies, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
In WP3, we analyze the sensitivity of the HUS to “bottom-up” (climate change) and “top-down” (fishing pressure) forcing, with the objective to identify potential regime shifts (tipping points). The aim is to assess impacts on the marine biogeochemistry and pelagic ecosystems when tipping points are crossed, and to develop early warning indicators.
There are two subtasks in WP3. The first is, in collaboration with the CUSCO project, the development of an end-to-end model of the Humboldt upwelling ecosystem, that is, the coupling of an ocean circulation model (CROCO-BioEBUS) and a fish model (OSMOSE), and the evaluation of the resultant coupled model system. The second task is the simulation of tipping point scenarios that explore the sensitivity of the HUS to environmental conditions and fishing pressure, for instance to a strong reduction of the upwelling of nutrient-rich waters or the collapse of the Peruvian Anchoveta.