WP2: Assessment of risk, trade-offs and uncertainty for management

PI: Dr. Saskia Otto (Uni HH)

Welcome to WP2, where our focus is on understanding the risk, trade-offs and uncertainty of the Humboldt Upwelling System (HUS) by modeling species dynamics, assessing risks under different scenarios, and identifying early warning signals for high-risk components.

Our first step is to study the impact of not only the abiotic conditions but also of biotic interactions on the abundance and distribution of fish and invertebrates in the HUS. Specifically, we will model the spatial interaction between the Peruvian anchovy and the Red squat lobster–the most abundant pelagic species in the HUS. The goal is to improve the predictions of their presence and abundance in both space and time. These models will be evaluated against the HUS-SSPs scenarios in coordination with WP6.

Additionally, we are building a fish community network to assess the strength and stability of pelagic and demersal food webs in the face of global changes.

We will also explore the impact of HUS-SSPs scenarios on the fish community. Here, we're developing regional semi-quantitative risk assessments, considering factors such as pressure exposure, sensitivity, resilience and adaptive capacity to cumulative effects of long-term changes and infrequent hazards for key indicator species. We will investigate risk and vulnerability hot spots using a combination of time series, literature, and expert opinions.

Finally, we're using time series techniques and deep learning algorithms to analyze high-risk components identified in the risk assessment. Our aim is to uncover early warning signs during critical transitions (leading indicators), providing valuable information for stakeholders.