WP5: Participatory modeling of social-ecological futures of Sechura Bay

PI: Prof. Dr. Achim Schlüter

Welcome to WP5, where we look at the sustainable management of marine resources and the dynamic relationship between coastal ecosystems and society. Building on the foundation established in phase 1, we focus on small-scale fisheries and aquaculture in Sechura Bay.

In the second phase of Humboldt Tipping, we want to explore how different local actors perceive and envision the coastal system. For this, we use Fuzzy Logic Cognitive Mapping to decode the underlying mental models and ideologies, so we can better understand the potential adaptive behaviors of people in times of change.

These insights will then be integrated with findings from phase 1 to develop a dynamic social-ecological network model of the local resource use sector of Sechura Bay. Through a combination of stakeholder workshops and expert elicitation, we will link social and ecological variables through causal relationships and determine their direction and strength. Employing a technique called “loop analysis”, we will then analyze potential impacts and disturbances on the system and assess their ripple effects on people and the environment.

To answer "What if…?" questions and explore potential coastal futures, we will evaluate the different HUS-SSPs scenarios under this framework. We will explore the societal and environmental implications under global change and assess the sustainability of related adaptive management options. In the end, our efforts aim to enhance the resilience and adaptive capacity of the local social-ecological system in coastal Peru.