WP3: Detectability of change in the HUS ecosystem under global change

PIs: Dr. Ivy Frenger (GEOMAR), Dr. Julia Getzlaff (GEOMAR), Dr. Mariana Hill (GEOMAR), Prof. Andreas Oschlies (GEOMAR)

Welcome to WP3! We're diving into the detectability of change in the Humboldt Upwelling System (HUS) ecosystem under global change in the second phase. Our research revolves around two key objectives:

  1. Assessing changes in drivers of variability and tipping points

    • Explore shifts under the different HUS-SSPs scenarios

    • Pinpoint if and when these changes become detectable by the end of the century, considering the natural variability of the HUS

    • Compare these changes with the local fishing pressure impacts on the ecosystem.

  2. Assessment of global climate model

    • Investigate how a global coarser-resolution IPCC-style climate model will represent these changes and their detectability

    • Quantify estimates of the impact of processes not currently resolved by existing climate models.

Our simulations of potential future environmental conditions with the climate model will serve WP1 for the scenario development and provide input for other WPs, for example WP6.

Within these two main objectives, we have two specific tasks:

  1. Simulate changes in the HUS ecosystem using the multi-species model OSMOSE produced by environmental drivers as observed in the global climate model FOCI under HUS-SSPs scenarios, and

  2. Set-up of climate model FOCI with improved spatial resolution of the HUS.

Dr. Ivy Frenger

Senior scientist

Work package 3

GEOMAR Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel
Düsternbrooker Weg 20
24105 Kiel
Germany

ifrenger@geomar.de
Tel. +49 431 600 4027

Working field within Humboldt Tipping:

- Regional biogeochemical modelling

Dr. Mariana Hill

Coordinator

Work package 3

GEOMAR Helmholtz-Zentrum for Ozeanforschung Kiel
Düsternbrooker Weg 20
24105 Kiel
Germany

mhill-cruz@geomar.de
Tel.  +49 431 600-1544

Working field within Humboldt Tipping:

- Ecosystem modeling with the multi-species model OSMOSE

Dr. Julia Getzlaff

Senior scientist

Work package 3

GEOMAR Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel
Düsternbrooker Weg 20
24105 Kiel
Germany

jgetzlaff@geomar.de
Tel.

Working field within Humboldt Tipping:

- Detectability of change in the HUS ecosystem under global change

Dr. Dante Espinoza

Senior Scientist

Work package 3

Instituto del Mar del Peru (IMARPE)
Esquina Gamarra y General Valle S/N
Chucuito Callao
Peru

despinoza@imarpe.gob.pe
Tel.

Working field within Humboldt Tipping:

- Modeling and biogeochemical analysis
- End-to-end ecosystem modelling of ecological tipping points in the HUS

Mathias Zeller

Scientific Staff

Work package 3

GEOMAR Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel
Düsternbrooker Weg 20
24105 Kiel
Germany

mzeller@geomar.de
Tel. +49 431 600 2397

Working field within Humboldt Tipping:

- Regional biogeochemical modelling

Prof. Dr. Andreas Oschlies

Senior scientist

Work package 3

GEOMAR Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel
Düsternbrooker Weg 20
24105 Kiel
Germany

aoschlies@geomar.de
Tel.

Working field within Humboldt Tipping:

- Detectability of change in the HUS ecosystem under global change