WP3: Detectability of change in the HUS ecosystem under global change

PIs: Dr. Ivy Frenger (GEOMAR), Dr. Julia Getzlaff (GEOMAR), Dr. Mariana Hill (GEOMAR), Prof. Andreas Oschlies (GEOMAR)

Welcome to WP3! We're diving into the detectability of change in the Humboldt Upwelling System (HUS) ecosystem under global change in the second phase. Our research revolves around two key objectives:

1. Assessing changes in drivers of variability and tipping points

   • Explore shifts under the different HUS-SSPs scenarios

   • Pinpoint if and when these changes become detectable by the end of the century, considering the natural variability of the HUS

   • Compare these changes with the local fishing pressure impacts on the ecosystem.

2. Assessment of global climate model

   • Investigate how a global coarser-resolution IPCC-style climate model will represent these changes and their detectability

   • Quantify estimates of the impact of processes not currently resolved by existing climate models.

Our simulations of potential future environmental conditions with the climate model will serve WP1 for the scenario development and provide input for other WPs, for example WP6.

Within these two main objectives, we have two specific tasks:

1. Simulate changes in the HUS ecosystem using the multi-species model OSMOSE produced by environmental drivers as observed in the global climate model FOCI under HUS-SSPs scenarios, and

2. Set-up of climate model FOCI with improved spatial resolution of the HUS.