WP 3: End-to-end ecosystem modelling of ecological tipping points in the HUS
PI: Ivy Frenger and Andreas Oschlies, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
In WP3, we analyze the sensitivity of the HUS to “bottom-up” (climate change) and “top-down” (fishing pressure) forcing, with the objective to identify potential regime shifts (tipping points). The aim is to assess impacts on the marine biogeochemistry and pelagic ecosystems when tipping points are crossed, and to develop early warning indicators.
There are two subtasks in WP3. The first is, in collaboration with the CUSCO project, the development of an end-to-end model of the Humboldt upwelling ecosystem, that is, the coupling of an ocean circulation model (CROCO-BioEBUS) and a fish model (OSMOSE), and the evaluation of the resultant coupled model system. The second task is the simulation of tipping point scenarios that explore the sensitivity of the HUS to environmental conditions and fishing pressure, for instance to a strong reduction of the upwelling of nutrient-rich waters or the collapse of the Peruvian Anchoveta.
Dr. Ivy Frenger
Coordinator
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Düsternbrooker Weg 20
24105 Kiel
Germany
ifrenger@geomar.de
Tel. +49 431 600 4027
Working field within Humboldt Tipping:
- Regional biogeochemical modelling
Dr. Yonss José
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Düsternbrooker Weg 20
24105 Kiel
Germany
yjose@geomar.de
Tel. +49 431 600 4270
Working field within Humboldt Tipping:
- End-to-end ecosystem modelling of ecological tipping points in the HUS
- CROCO-BioEBUS
Mariana Hill-Cruz
Doctoral Researcher
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Düsternbrooker Weg 20
24105 Kiel
Germany
mhill-cruz(at)geomar.de
Tel. +49 431 600-4270
Working field within Humboldt Tipping:
- End-to-end ecosystem modelling of ecological tipping points in the HUS
- OSMOSE
Dr. Dante Espinoza
Senior Scientist
Instituto del Mar del Peru (IMARPE)
Esquina Gamarra y General Valle S/N
Chucuito Callao
Peru
Working field within Humboldt Tipping:
- Modeling and biogeochemical analysis
- End-to-end ecosystem modelling of ecological tipping points in the HUS
Jaard Hauschildt
Doctoral Researcher
GEOMAR Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel
Düsternbrooker Weg 20
24105 Kiel
Germany
jhauschildt@geomar.de
Tel. +49 431 600-4270
Working field within Humboldt Tipping:
End-to-end ecosystem modelling of ecological tipping points in the HUS
CROCO-BioEBUS